Predictive Analytics
8 points
Assignment 4 Objective: Prepare a managerial report, starting with an executive summary; expected length up to 4 pages APA format, excluding cover page, table of content, and appendixes.
- Perform a time series analysis on the total dollar amount of residential real estate sales in your neighborhood, Maspeth Queens. Use sales beginning in the year 2009 to develop your model. Develop a forecast for the next 8 quarters of sales. You may use a hypothetical quarterly data set in order to forecast the next 8 quarters of sales.
Sale Median Prices as listed below:
| Year | Median Sale Price |
| 2009 | $596,192.30 |
| 2010 | $630,933.18 |
| 2011 | $566,213.47 |
| 2012 | $570,951.77 |
| 2013 | $603,779.50 |
| 2014 | $603,779.50 |
| 2015 | $697,513.13 |
| 2016 | $777,221.95 |
| 2017 | $796,951.03 |
| 2018 | $804,704.38 |
| 2019 | $812,803.92 |
| 2020 | $811,198.71 |
| 2021 | $816,989.80 |
| 2022 | $814,000.00 |
| 2023 (Q1) | $690,186.00 |
| Median Sale Price from 2009 – Present | $697,513.13 |
- Use a multiple regression model to come up with another forecast for the next 8 quarters of sales. Include time and seasonality. Use sales beginning in the year 2009 to develop your model.
- Use a multiple regression model to determine the sale of a given residential property in your neighborhood. Include:
Rest of the data can be hypothetical.
- Sale Date
- Year built
- Building type (categorical) – Single Family, Multi family, Condos/Cop, Commercials
- Gross Square Feet
| Year | Median Sale Price Per Gross Square Footage |
| 2009 | $200.08 |
| 2010 | $194.21 |
| 2011 | $192.4 |
| 2012 | $209.02 |
| 2013 | $223.01 |
| 2014 | $244.45 |
| 2015 | $283.7 |
| 2016 | $309.59 |
| 2017 | $315.81 |
| 2018 | $322.13 |
| 2019 | $344.19 |
| 2020 | $336.05 |
| 2021 | $357.15 |
| 2022 | $396.2 |
| 2023 (Q1) | $604 |
| Median Sale Price/Square Foot from 2009 – Present | $309.59 |
| Total Median Sale Price/Square Foot from 2009 – Present | $4531.99 |
- Number of Units:
Maspeth Queens
| Year | Sales Volume |
| 2009 | 620 |
| 2010 | 619 |
| 2011 | 521 |
| 2012 | 507 |
| 2013 | 681 |
| 2014 | 699 |
| 2015 | 728 |
| 2016 | 601 |
| 2017 | 613 |
| 2018 | 666 |
| 2019 | 617 |
| 2020 | 562 |
| 2021 | 795 |
| 2022 | 965 |
| 2023 (Q1) | 264 |
| Total Number of Sales from 2009 – Present | 9458 |
- According to your model from (3), what are the most and least useful predictors of the amount of a sale? Are there any redundant independent variables in your model from (3)? How can you tell?
- According to your model from (3), which properties were the biggest bargains and which were the most overpriced? How might you account for these disparities?
- Write 3-4 pages summarizing your findings with a focus on the output, interpretation of the output, and what the insights mean for our decision-making process?
